We are now living under a regime that displays ineffectual decision-making, sloppy governance and a lack of systematisation. Whether it is the situation concerning the COVID scenario, coal block auctioning or the dispute at LAC, the government continues to obfuscate, divert or ignore the grim reality and project truths that are either concocted or fuzzy.
Let’s look at the serological survey, for instance, that was conducted by the ICMR (Indian Council of Medical Research). The results of the data were neither coherent nor conclusive. The serological survey is a community level IgG antibody testing that evaluates if one has had any past exposure to SARS-CoV-2. It was conducted over twenty-four thousand individuals in 69 districts throughout India. The districts were broadly categorised into four divisions based on zero cases, low, medium and high incidence. None of these categories were defined quantitatively.
During the presentation, the ICMR headed by Health Secretary Balram Bharghava (left in above fig) made claims that 0.73% of the tested samples were positive and the IFR (Infection Fatality Rate) was low at 0.08% of the positive cases. The ICMR had then concluded that the lockdown was successful in containing the virus.
As of early May this year, the total number of reported cases was just over 25000. If we extrapolate the data of 0.73% to the Indian population of 1.4 billion, the figure amounts to 10.2 million - a discrepancy by a factor of over 300. And 0.08% of 10.2 million roughly amounts to 8000 deaths, again not in sync with the reported cases of 1200~1500 by the MHRD (Ministry of Human Resource Development). If one were to consider just the population of the concerned 69 districts in question, one would still end up with an estimate far above the reported numbers (Jacob Koshy, The Hindu).
Let's assume that the government reported the figures as collected, and indeed, the number of deaths was around 1500. This was 0.08% of the total cases, which implied that the total number of cases were well over 1.8 million. Neither way, the data match - pointing to a distortion of the true count.
Even in other aspects of the presentation, the data was very vague, for instance, they had just claimed that the cases were high in containment zones, and the results were inconclusive. Why was the data not presented regardless of whether they were conclusive or not?
Venkatesh Nayak, the head of information programme at Commonwealth Human Rights initiative, sent a formal request under the Right to Information act seeking a centralised form of information on the list of all the COVID Treatment Centres and hospitals. On receiving no response from the ministry, he filed a complaint with the CIC (Central Information Commission). The CIC itself was shocked to learn that none of the members could provide a satisfying response at the time. This clearly shows the blatant disregard for information that is of paramount importance.
In fact, even the home state of the ruling party doesn’t seem to be doing well. Gujarat is ranked number one, capable of boasting about its highest IFR of 6.35%. Even though Maharashtra exceeds its death count by a huge margin, it still has a significantly low IFR of only 3.73%.
Ahmedabad is one of those cities that was declared a hotspot since the onset of COVID-19. On accounts of anonymity, many doctors have claimed to have witnessed incidents where the cause of death of patients was deliberately not put down as COVID-19.
The city faces a significant labour shortage due to large-scale exodus of migrants to their home states. Phases following unlock 1.0 have not been particularly helpful to the state as a significant spike is being observed amongst diamond factory workers, market vendors and distributors. Poverty, low demand, child trafficking, child labour and begging are becoming a forced consequence as said by multiple NGOs, including the well known BBA (Bachpan Bachao Andolan).
Even when we move away from the COVID scenario, diversionary tactics, clever wordplay and a pronounced crisis in leadership seems to be inherent in the politics of the governing party.
Throughout both of Modi’s terms of office, he has been antipathetic to the idea of conversing with the opposition party when it comes to decision making.
On June 19th an all-party video conference was held with regard to the 20 Indian soldiers who were martyred in a violent face-off at the Galwan valley. The PM was the last one to speak in the meeting, after which the conference was closed without room for any clarification. Just before which the External Affairs Minister Jaishankar had mentioned that the Chinese troops had sought to erect a structure on the Indian side of the LAC and he also recalled that on June 6th military level agreements were reached to disengage and de-escalate.This premeditated action was the source of the dispute leading to the violent chain of events. There were multiple queries that followed from various MPs, including Sonia Gandhi. Some of them were as follows:
When did the PLA enter Indian territory?
Did the government not receive regular satellite images of the activity along the LAC?
When was the government notified?
Did the external intelligence agency or the military not notify the government about a build-up of troops and increase in unusual activity along the LAC.
Almost all of these critical questions were brushed off by the PM. And he made the statement given in the figure below.
Now if China did not enter India, then why did 20 soldiers give up their lives? Then did India enter China thereby adopting expansionary measures? Or is it that the PM has redrawn the Indian map and given up claim on the Galwan valley altogether?
Notwithstanding the valid questions, almost every time Modi and Shah made public appearances they have made speeches that have relied on extensive rhetoric. During an episode of the “Mann Ki Baat” radio programme Modi had iterated on the following aspects.
India’s spirit of universal brotherhood and the strength of unity, India’s commitment to safeguarding territorial integrity, and India’s capability of being able to give a befitting response to China.
Although such propaganda serves a purpose it does not provide a concrete solution nor is it of any help in making the public aware of the reality.
Amit Shah in an interview with a news agency responded to Rahul Gandhi’s tweets on the government's response to the situation at LAC, by saying he had resorted to anti-India propaganda that was in favor of both Pakistan and China. Moreover he had skirted all the definitive and explicit questions relating to the situation at the LAC and just echoed Modi’s repeated assertions. He also attributed the Congress as the reason why India was behind many other countries in the defence sector. JP Nadda, the BJP National president challenged Rahul Gandhi to participate in a debate on the historical events since 1962, to show that the land lost by the Congress to China had far surpassed the BJP. This was a response to Rahul Gandhi's accusation on India having lost land to China under the current governance.
All of this petty politicking and squabble is simply summarised by a former Senior official in the Army in an interview with a frontline journalist. “When you are asked the questions about the current face-off, you respond by saying that we have lost thousands of square kilometers since 1962 and that the discussions have to start from there. This very argument shows you are on the defensive in the current situation”.
On another front, despite all forms of reasoning and opposition, the government is persistent in auctioning off 41 coal blocks from the States of Maharashtra, Madhya Pradesh, Chhattisgarh, Odisha and Jharkhand. Despite the fact that investors seem reluctant, NDA seems to be in some sort of hurry to privatise this sector.
On June 10th, 1.5 Lakh coal workers from CIL (Coal India Ltd) and SCCL (Singareni Collieries Company Ltd) went on strike for one day to prevent the auction that was to be conducted through video conference. The government called off the process but reverted to the original decision within a week. The Trade union went on strike again for three consecutive days starting July 3rd.
The primary motive behind this decision was to generate job opportunities (the government estimates over 2.8 lakh jobs), reduce the energy dependence of India on other countries and generate greater revenue for the State government which could alleviate the COVID situation.
This decision seems to be heavily one-sided, with no sort of consultation with the State governments on sensitive issues like socio-economic impacts on tribal communities and locals residents. In particular, 18 of 20 coal mines of Jharkhand lie in the region of Hasdeo forest which is constitutionally protected and is a no-go zone as far as mining is concerned. The Environment Minister of the state had notified the Centre of the possible worsening of the pre-existing man-animal conflict once the mines were auctioned. Moreover, the Minerals amendment bill 2020 allows for private players with no prior experience to enter the field. On all these grounds the Jharkhand government was forced to file a petition with the Supreme Court on plausible commercial exploitation
Putting all this together, it becomes clear as daylight that our government is making decisions that are unhealthy in multifarious aspects for its citizens. These are nothing but direct results of being open neither to constructive criticism nor scientific advice.
If there is a time when the government starts to look at the objective nature of the problem in which our country stands, it is NOW.
ACKNOWLEDGMENTS
Special thanks to Sumedha D for her valuable constructive suggestions.
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